Separation would mean fewer jobs, higher costs, weaker rights and greater uncertainty for working Albertans, AFL says

CALGARY — A new report released today by the Alberta Federation of Labour (AFL) warns that separation would impose enormous economic and social costs on Alberta workers — threatening jobs, wages, pensions, public services, labour rights, and Alberta’s future prosperity.

The report, False Promises, Big Dangers: How Separation Would Hurt Alberta Workers, was prepared by economist Jim Stanford of the Centre for Future Work in partnership with the Alberta Federation of Labour. It debunks separatist claims that Alberta would be richer, freer, and better off outside Canada, and instead finds that separation would create sweeping economic uncertainty and leave workers paying more while getting less.

“Alberta workers are one of the key targets for separatist appeals, but they have the most to lose and the least to gain from Danielle Smith’s separatist referendum,” said Gil McGowan, President of the Alberta Federation of Labour. “The fantasy being sold by separatists is that Alberta can somehow split away and become richer overnight. The reality is that workers would face lost jobs, higher taxes, weaker rights, and deep uncertainty over pensions, benefits, trade, and the future of their communities.”

The report finds that separation would expose Alberta to a severe recession, capital flight, falling investment, trade disruption, massive job losses, further wage erosion and the staggering costs of building the institutions of a new country — including defence, currency and banking systems, tax collection, international relations, and social programs.

It also warns that workers could lose or see major uncertainty related to the protections, benefits and programs they currently rely on as Canadians, including Employment Insurance, the Canada Pension Plan, federal labour standards, protection under the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, and the ability to work, live, study, and retire freely across Canada.

Among the report’s key findings:

  • Separation would create an intense risk of job loss through reduced investment confidence, capital flight, and recession.
  • Workers would face higher taxes and weaker public services as Alberta absorbed the cost of replacing federal programs and institutions.
  • Trade with other provinces and international markets would be thrown into doubt, threatening industries and communities that depend on those markets.
  • Alberta’s existing problems are rooted at home: corporate profits have surged while workers’ share of the economy has fallen faster than in any other province.
  • Real wages in Alberta have declined since 2019, even as productivity, oil production, exports, and corporate profits have grown.

“Alberta workers are understandably frustrated with rising costs, falling wages, deteriorating public services, and increasing insecurity about the future,” said Cori Longo, Secretary Treasurer of the Alberta Federation of Labour. “But, as the report shows, most of those concerns are rooted in decisions made by our provincial government, not Ottawa. Separation would not improve things – it would make a bad situation worse.”

The report points to Alberta’s eight-year minimum wage freeze, falling real wages, weak business reinvestment, and record corporate profits as evidence that the province’s biggest economic challenge is not federal interference, but a provincial economic model that lets corporations capture more of Alberta’s wealth while workers fall further behind.

“Danielle Smith and the UCP let the fires of separation burn for political reasons, and now working Albertans are being asked to carry the risk,” said Jim Stanford, economist and author of the report. “This report makes clear that the path to a stronger Alberta is not separation. Instead, it is higher wages, stronger labour rights, better public services, and a renewed commitment to building a fairer province within Canada.”

The Alberta Federation of Labour is calling on Albertans to reject separatist false promises and focus instead on the real solutions workers need: an economy that share’s Alberta’s wealth more fairly, a higher minimum wage, free collective bargaining, stronger public services, and respect for human and labour rights.

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Report: Read the full report

MEDIA CONTACT:
Sloan Thurston
Director of Field Operations and Communications, AFL
sthurston@afl.org/communications@afl.org